There is a vision for those who believe in them, from Theresa May in writing about today’s relationship of the UK with the EU. Most likely, the political constraints made by Brussels will collide with the British view, all in all the negotiations of the outcome are still quite unclear despite the Brexit White Paper.
Here are some of the most likely possibilities for March 2019.
1.CHAOTIC ‘no deal’
Northern Ireland is the most likely factor that will cause disagreement.
As Brussels and London differ over how to prevent a hard border, with the UK’s help. The backstop will keep the country busy in making arrangements with the EU. Despite the circumstances, Brussels strongly believes that the regulatory and customs rules should only apply to the province.
Several factors will cause chaos on March 29, these instances are,
Britain being forced to crash out of the EU on March 29 is a strong possibility if the stalemate is not resolved before Christmas.
Goods- Under such circumstances, this chaos cause tension at all tariffs, customs and regulatory controls on all UK borders. Depending on the contingency plans it has layed out, the EU is in control of how strict the border checks will be.
Services- the EU can opt to ground both truck and flight transportation. It is currently giving a grace period before a decision is made for all we know.
Political risk – Bitter repercussions for future relations.
2.HARD BREXIT after the transition
If negotiations on a final trading arrangement fail. The EU27 will refuse to recognise UK cherry picking of the single market. Britain has rejected any chance to enter into a customs union with the EU such that only a Canada-style agreement with carve-out transport services is agreed.
By January 2021, a customs border will be put up in the Irish sea due to the failure of trade negotiations and also because the UK has signed up to an Ireland backstop in the divorce deal.
3.GOODS-only single market access
As Europe agrees to sign up to Mrs. Mays chequers blueprint, negotiations on a final deal will secure a regulatory alignment for goods. Indirectly overseen by the European court of justice and for some services, get a similar arrangement. Since Britain allows widespread movement of EU citizens and even gives a budgetary contribution, By accepting this deal, the EU does not undermine the single market.
Timing – with an orderly withdrawal agreement, the UK leaves the EU entering the transition period that signs an understandable set of economic agreements with the EU.
Goods – in industrial, food and agricultural goods, there is a frictionless trade.
Services – Despite Britains circumstance, she still has the biggest access to the EU market compared to any other block members.
Political risks – in spite of Mrs. May being accused by leavers of overseeing it in name only she celebrates a deal on her own terms. The EU27 have concerns that the UK was granted too many adjustments or preferences.
Business reaction-though business is greatly satisfied with the outcomes, there are complains that the financial sector in London was not considered.
4.NORWAY PLUS PLUS
The EU27, unfortunately, turned down Mrs. Mays request for single market membership for goods only saying that it would undermine the four freedoms of goods, services, capital, and labor. A withdrawal agreement was signed by Britain with the EU’S backstop for Northern Ireland to enable EEA style relationship negotiated after Brexit.
Timing- with an orderly withdrawal agreement, the UK leaves the EU.
Goods-frictionless trade is available in all aspects
Services run normally.
